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[The yield of 30-year treasury bonds fell below the 2% mark, and the active bonds of 30-year treasury bonds fell below 2% by 4.26bp, reaching 1.9999% as of press time.China Merchants Securities: Investment Guidelines of the Central Economic Work Conference for A-shares next year From these four aspects, China Merchants Securities said that the investment guidelines of the Central Economic Work Conference for A-shares next year mainly include the following aspects: 1) From a macro perspective, the support intensity of policies for various economic work is expected to exceed market expectations. Specifically, the fiscal policy orientation is positive, deficit ratio will arrange or keep it above 3%, the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be further expanded, and the scale and investment field of special bonds are expected to be further extended; Monetary policy mentioned "timely lowering the RRR and cutting interest rates", and the goal of liquidity policy changed from balance to loose tendency, which will bring room for valuation improvement of A shares. 2) From the perspective of expanding domestic demand, consumption will become the main line of investment next year: the meeting will continue the deployment of the Politburo meeting in December, and in the order of writing, consumption will still be placed at the top of next year's key tasks. In terms of specific measures, it is planned to boost consumption mainly through two aspects. First, increase the income of residents; The second is to increase consumption scenarios. 3) Focus on scientific and technological innovation to lead the development of new quality productive forces, and grasp two main lines: this meeting focused on "carrying out' artificial intelligence+'action and cultivating future industries". Artificial intelligence has appeared in the draft of the Central Economic Work Conference for three consecutive years. Future industries have also appeared in the draft of the Central Economic Work Conference for two consecutive years. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on artificial intelligence+and future industries. 4) Focus on "comprehensive improvement of' involution' competition": In terms of "involution" competition, photovoltaic industry is the representative in emerging industries. Recently, in addition to self-regulatory measures such as industry association initiatives, the photovoltaic export tax rebate rate has been lowered and industry norms have been updated to further control new production capacity. The policy is further introduced to curb the "involution" competition of photovoltaics. It is recommended to pay attention to photovoltaic, lithium battery and other industries.Goldman Sachs lowered the UK's GDP growth forecast for 2024 from the previous 1.2% to 1.0%.

District 9 of Beijing issued a gale warning. At present, Huairou, Yanqing, Changping, Haidian, Mentougou, Fangshan, Chaoyang, Pinggu and Shijingshan have issued a blue gale warning signal. Today, the wind-cold effect is obvious, and the body feels cold. We should pay attention to wind and cold protection, and stay away from temporary structures such as billboards and tall trees, and do a good job in outdoor aerial work.The USD/JPY just broke through the 153.00 mark, and the latest price was 153.01, up 0.25% in the day.On the 13th, SSE 50 index futures fell by 2.58%, and the latest main contract positions changed as follows. According to the exchange data, as of December 13th, SSE 50 index futures closed at 2,412, up or down by -2.58%, with a turnover of 53,000 lots. The position data showed that the top 20 seats were clear, and the difference position was 7,398 lots. The total number of contracts of SSE 50 index futures was 91,500 lots, an increase of 25,700 lots over the previous day. The first 20 seats in the contract held 88,200 lots, an increase of 2,257 lots over the previous day. The short positions in the top 20 seats of the contract were 113,700 lots, an increase of 1,701 lots over the previous day. (Sina Futures)

The organization looks forward to the semiconductor industry in 2025: the AI ​ ​ replacement tide leads the growth, and the semiconductor ETF(512480) may usher in new development opportunities. On December 13, the semiconductor ETF(512480) closed down by 1.38%, with a turnover of 1.671 billion yuan. The constituent stocks are mixed, and Zhaoyi Innovation leads the rise. In terms of decline, SMIC led the decline. CICC said that after the boom in 2024, it is expected that the inventory of the semiconductor industry will stabilize and the relationship between supply and demand will be more balanced in 2025. With the gradual landing of AI cloud and end demand, domestic semiconductor elements will usher in new development opportunities. In addition, the AI-changing tide has a pulling effect on the downstream demand of the semiconductor design sector, which is expected to accelerate the growth of the semiconductor design sector in 2025 and inject new vitality into the industry.US media: Hamas may agree to temporarily stay in Gaza after the ceasefire of the Israeli army. On the 12th, the US media reported that the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) had softened its negotiating position and might agree to temporarily stay in Gaza after the ceasefire. Hamas has not yet responded to this news. (Xinhua News Agency)On the 13th, silver fell by 1.91%, and the latest main contract positions changed as follows. According to the exchange data, as of December 13th, the main contract silver was 2,502, up or down by -1.91%, with a turnover of 1,004,900 lots. The position data showed that the top 20 seats were net, and the difference position was 30,444 lots. The total turnover of silver futures contracts was 1,505,900 lots, an increase of 417,500 lots over the previous day. The first 20 seats in the contract held 335,600 lots, a decrease of 15,200 lots from the previous day. The short positions in the top 20 seats of the contract were 251,300 lots, an increase of 17,500 lots over the previous day. (Sina Futures)